Estonia: Poll by Turu-uuringute AS from 06.12.2023

Estonia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
I
26.2
+0.3
R
17.7
-0.3
EKRE
15.9
-4.6
SDE
13.2
+3.2
K
11.9
+1.0
E200
6.3
+1.2
P
3.5
-0.2
KOOS
1.8
-0.1
EER
1.1
±0.0
EÜVP
0.1
-0.4
Others
2.3
-0.1
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+18.0
R
-13.5
EKRE
-0.2
SDE
+3.9
K
-3.4
E200
-7.0
P
+1.2
KOOS
New
EER
+0.1
EÜVP
New
Turu-uuringute AS – 871 respondents – 30.11.2023-06.12.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Low number of respondents

Only 871 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates EKRE lower

In 30% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond higher

In 39% of election polls, Turu-uuringute AS rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 48% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia from Turu-uuringute AS shows the following results: Isamaa 26.2%, Reformierakond 17.7%, EKRE 15.9%, SDE 13.2%, Keskerakond 11.9%, E200 6.3%, Parempoolsed 3.5%, KOOS 1.8%, EER 1.1% and EÜVP 0.1%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +18.0 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-13.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 63.4% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Turu-uuringute AS. For this purpose, 871 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (30.11.2023 - 06.12.2023).

Coalition possibilities

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
15
14.9%
K
13
12.9%
E200
7
6.9%
R
20
19.8%
I
29
28.7%
EKRE
17
16.8%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
65.3%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
63.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
61.4%
Isamaa + SDE + Keskerakond
56.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + E200
55.4%
Reformierakond + SDE + Keskerakond + E200
54.5%
Isamaa + EKRE + E200
52.5%
Isamaa + SDE + E200
50.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Turu-uuringute AS. The survey took place between 30.11.2023 and 06.12.2023 among 871 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Isamaa 26.2%, Reformierakond 17.7%, EKRE 15.9%, SDE 13.2%, Keskerakond 11.9%, E200 6.3%, Parempoolsed 3.5%, KOOS 1.8%, EER 1.1% and EÜVP 0.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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