Estonia
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Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 15.05.2024

Polling data

I
21.5
-0.6
SDE
18.0
+3.8
R
17.5
-1.3
EKRE
17.0
-1.3
K
12.7
-1.1
P
5.4
+0.8
E200
4.9
+0.1
EER
2.0
-0.2
EÜVP
1.2
±0.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+13.3
SDE
+8.7
R
-13.7
EKRE
+0.9
K
-2.6
P
+3.1
E200
-8.4
EER
+1.0
EÜVP
New
Kantar Emor – 1471 respondents – 06.05.2024-15.05.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 higher

In 56% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond lower

In 48% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Keskerakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 34% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDE higher

In 52% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Isamaa 21.5%, SDE 18%, Reformierakond 17.5%, EKRE 17%, Keskerakond 12.7%, Parempoolsed 5.4%, E200 4.9%, EER 2% and EÜVP 1.2%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +13.3 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-13.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 62.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1471 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 9 days (06.05.2024 - 15.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

101
SDE
20
K
14
R
19
I
24
P
6
EKRE
18
Majority requires 51 seats
Isamaa + SDE + Reformierakond
63
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
61
Isamaa + SDE + Keskerakond
58
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
57
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
53
Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed
50

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 06.05.2024 and 15.05.2024 among 1471 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Isamaa 21.5%, SDE 18%, Reformierakond 17.5%, EKRE 17%, Keskerakond 12.7%, Parempoolsed 5.4%, E200 4.9%, EER 2% and EÜVP 1.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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