Estonia
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Estonia: Poll by Turu-uuringute AS from 21.05.2024

Polling data

I
22.0
-5.0
SDE
19.0
+6.0
R
17.0
-2.0
EKRE
16.0
+1.0
K
8.0
-2.0
E200
6.0
+1.0
P
5.0
+1.0
EER
2.0
±0.0
KOOS
2.0
+1.0
EÜVP
0.0
-2.0
Sonst.
3.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+13.8
SDE
+9.7
R
-14.2
EKRE
-0.1
K
-7.3
E200
-7.3
P
+2.7
EER
+1.0
KOOS
New
EÜVP
New
Turu-uuringute AS – 897 respondents – 09.05.2024-21.05.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Low number of respondents

Only 897 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates EKRE lower

In 32% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond higher

In 42% of election polls, Turu-uuringute AS rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 53% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Turu-uuringute AS shows the following results: Isamaa 22%, SDE 19%, Reformierakond 17%, EKRE 16%, Keskerakond 8%, E200 6%, Parempoolsed 5%, EER 2%, KOOS 2% and EÜVP 0%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +13.8 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-14.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 62.4% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Turu-uuringute AS. For this purpose, 897 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 12 days (09.05.2024 - 21.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

101
SDE
21
K
8
E200
6
R
19
I
24
P
5
EKRE
18
Majority requires 51 seats
Isamaa + SDE + Reformierakond
64
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
61
Isamaa + Reformierakond + E200 + Parempoolsed
54
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond + E200
54
Isamaa + EKRE + E200 + Parempoolsed
53
Isamaa + SDE + Keskerakond
53
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
53
SDE + Reformierakond + E200 + Parempoolsed
51
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
51
Isamaa + SDE + E200
51
Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed
50

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Turu-uuringute AS. The survey took place between 09.05.2024 and 21.05.2024 among 897 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Isamaa 22%, SDE 19%, Reformierakond 17%, EKRE 16%, Keskerakond 8%, E200 6%, Parempoolsed 5%, EER 2%, KOOS 2% and EÜVP 0%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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