Estonia: Poll by Norstat from 06.06.2024

Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
SDE
21.6
-0.5
I
20.9
+0.8
R
16.8
-1.0
EKRE
16.7
+1.2
K
9.1
-0.2
P
6.9
+2.1
E200
3.3
-1.4
KOOS
1.6
-0.7
EER
0.6
-0.5
Others
2.5
+0.2
Norstat – 1302 respondents – 04.06.2024-06.06.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 lower

In 39% of election polls Norstat rates E200 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond higher

In 32% of election polls, Norstat rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond higher

In 48% of election polls, Norstat rates Reformierakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDE lower

In 31% of election polls Norstat rates SDE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia from Norstat shows the following results: SDE 21.6%, Isamaa 20.9%, Reformierakond 16.8%, EKRE 16.7%, Keskerakond 9.1%, Parempoolsed 6.9%, E200 3.3%, KOOS 1.6% and EER 0.6%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +12.7 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-14.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 62.5% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Norstat. For this purpose, 1302 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (04.06.2024 - 06.06.2024).

Coalition possibilities

96
Majority requires 49 seats
SDE
22
22.9%
K
9
9.4%
E200
3
3.1%
R
17
17.7%
I
21
21.9%
P
6
6.3%
KOOS
1
1%
EKRE
17
17.7%
SDE + Isamaa + Reformierakond
62.5%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
57.3%
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
56.3%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
55.2%
SDE + Isamaa + Keskerakond
54.2%
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond + E200
53.1%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond + E200
52.1%
SDE + Isamaa + Parempoolsed
51.0%
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
50.0%
SDE + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed + E200
50.0%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
49.0%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed + E200
49.0%
Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed + E200
49.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in EU-Parliament was conducted by Norstat. The survey took place between 04.06.2024 and 06.06.2024 among 1302 eligible voters. After this election poll would get SDE 21.6%, Isamaa 20.9%, Reformierakond 16.8%, EKRE 16.7%, Keskerakond 9.1%, Parempoolsed 6.9%, E200 3.3%, KOOS 1.6% and EER 0.6%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.