Estonia
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Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 17.07.2024

Polling data

I
27.5
+0.4
SDE
17.1
-0.4
R
16.0
±0.0
K
13.8
-0.3
EKRE
12.6
-0.2
P
5.4
-3.0
KOOS
2.9
+2.9
E200
2.6
±0.0
EER
0.6
-0.6
EÜVP
0.4
±0.0
Sonst.
1.1
+1.2
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+19.3
SDE
+7.8
R
-15.2
K
-1.5
EKRE
-3.5
P
+3.1
KOOS
New
E200
-10.7
EER
-0.4
EÜVP
New
Kantar Emor – 1512 respondents – 11.07.2024-17.07.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 higher

In 56% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond lower

In 48% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Keskerakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 34% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDE higher

In 52% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Isamaa 27.5%, SDE 17.1%, Reformierakond 16%, Keskerakond 13.8%, EKRE 12.6%, Parempoolsed 5.4%, KOOS 2.9%, E200 2.6%, EER 0.6% and EÜVP 0.4%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +19.3 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-15.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 65.6% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1512 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (11.07.2024 - 17.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

101
SDE
19
K
15
R
17
I
30
P
6
EKRE
14
Majority requires 51 seats
Isamaa + SDE + Reformierakond
66
Isamaa + SDE + Keskerakond
64
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
62
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
61
Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed
55
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
53
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
51
Isamaa + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
51
Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed
50

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 11.07.2024 and 17.07.2024 among 1512 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Isamaa 27.5%, SDE 17.1%, Reformierakond 16%, Keskerakond 13.8%, EKRE 12.6%, Parempoolsed 5.4%, KOOS 2.9%, E200 2.6%, EER 0.6% and EÜVP 0.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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