Estonia
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Estonia: Poll by Norstat from 29.07.2024

Polling data

I
29.4
-0.8
SDE
17.8
+0.8
R
15.2
-1.8
EKRE
15.0
+2.4
K
13.0
-0.6
P
4.5
±0.0
E200
2.7
+0.1
EER
0.9
-0.7
Sonst.
1.5
+0.6
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+21.2
SDE
+8.5
R
-16.0
EKRE
-1.1
K
-2.3
P
+2.2
E200
-10.6
EER
-0.1
Norstat – 1000 respondents – 22.07.2024-29.07.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 lower

In 41% of election polls Norstat rates E200 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond higher

In 32% of election polls, Norstat rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond higher

In 50% of election polls, Norstat rates Reformierakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Norstat shows the following results: Isamaa 29.4%, SDE 17.8%, Reformierakond 15.2%, EKRE 15%, Keskerakond 13%, Parempoolsed 4.5%, E200 2.7% and EER 0.9%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +21.2 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-16.0) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 69.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Norstat. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (22.07.2024 - 29.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

101
SDE
20
K
14
R
17
I
33
EKRE
17
Majority requires 51 seats
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
67
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
64
Isamaa + SDE
53
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
51
Isamaa + Reformierakond
50
Isamaa + EKRE
50

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Norstat. The survey took place between 22.07.2024 and 29.07.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Isamaa 29.4%, SDE 17.8%, Reformierakond 15.2%, EKRE 15%, Keskerakond 13%, Parempoolsed 4.5%, E200 2.7% and EER 0.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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