Estonia: Poll by Norstat from 04.08.2024

Estonia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
I
29.7
+0.3
SDE
18.2
+0.4
R
16.6
+1.4
EKRE
13.0
-2.0
K
11.3
-1.7
P
5.3
+0.8
E200
3.2
+0.5
EER
0.9
±0.0
Others
1.8
+0.3
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+21.5
SDE
+8.9
R
-14.6
EKRE
-3.1
K
-4.0
P
+3.0
E200
-10.1
EER
-0.1
Norstat – 1000 respondents – 29.07.2024-04.08.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 lower

In 38% of election polls Norstat rates E200 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond higher

In 31% of election polls, Norstat rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond higher

In 48% of election polls, Norstat rates Reformierakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDE lower

In 31% of election polls Norstat rates SDE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia from Norstat shows the following results: Isamaa 29.7%, SDE 18.2%, Reformierakond 16.6%, EKRE 13%, Keskerakond 11.3%, Parempoolsed 5.3%, E200 3.2% and EER 0.9%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +21.5 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-14.6) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 69.3% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Norstat. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (29.07.2024 - 04.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
20
19.8%
K
12
11.9%
R
18
17.8%
I
32
31.7%
P
5
5%
EKRE
14
13.9%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
63.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
61.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
54.5%
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
54.5%
Isamaa + SDE
51.5%
Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed
50.5%
Isamaa + Reformierakond
49.5%
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
49.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Norstat. The survey took place between 29.07.2024 and 04.08.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Isamaa 29.7%, SDE 18.2%, Reformierakond 16.6%, EKRE 13%, Keskerakond 11.3%, Parempoolsed 5.3%, E200 3.2% and EER 0.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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