Estonia
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Estonia: Poll by Turu-uuringute AS from 09.08.2024

Polling data

I
25.0
+2.0
SDE
17.0
±0.0
R
16.0
-4.0
K
12.0
+1.0
EKRE
11.0
-4.0
P
6.0
+1.0
E200
3.0
-1.0
ER
3.0
+3.0
KOOS
3.0
+1.0
EER
2.0
+1.0
EÜVP
0.0
±0.0
Sonst.
2.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+16.8
SDE
+7.7
R
-15.2
K
-3.3
EKRE
-5.1
P
+3.7
E200
-10.3
ER
New
KOOS
New
EER
+1.0
EÜVP
New
Turu-uuringute AS – 893 respondents – 01.08.2024-09.08.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Low number of respondents

Only 893 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates EKRE lower

In 32% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond higher

In 42% of election polls, Turu-uuringute AS rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 53% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Turu-uuringute AS shows the following results: Isamaa 25%, SDE 17%, Reformierakond 16%, Keskerakond 12%, EKRE 11%, Parempoolsed 6%, E200 3%, Elurikkuse Erakond 3%, KOOS 3%, EER 2% and EÜVP 0%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +16.8 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-15.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 66.6% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Turu-uuringute AS. For this purpose, 893 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 8 days (01.08.2024 - 09.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

101
SDE
20
K
14
R
18
I
29
P
7
EKRE
13
Majority requires 51 seats
Isamaa + SDE + Reformierakond
67
Isamaa + SDE + Keskerakond
63
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
61
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
60
Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed
56
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
54
SDE + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
52
Isamaa + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
50

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Turu-uuringute AS. The survey took place between 01.08.2024 and 09.08.2024 among 893 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Isamaa 25%, SDE 17%, Reformierakond 16%, Keskerakond 12%, EKRE 11%, Parempoolsed 6%, E200 3%, Elurikkuse Erakond 3%, KOOS 3%, EER 2% and EÜVP 0%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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