Estonia: Poll by RAIT Faktum & Ariko from 18.02.2019

Polling data

R
25.0
±0.0
K
22.0
±0.0
EKRE
18.0
±0.0
I
11.0
±0.0
SDE
11.0
±0.0
E200
4.0
±0.0
EER
2.0
±0.0
EVA
2.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-6.2
K
+6.7
EKRE
+1.9
I
+2.8
SDE
+1.7
E200
-9.3
EER
+1.0
EVA
New
RAIT Faktum & Ariko – 1163 respondents – 12.02.2019-18.02.2019

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia from RAIT Faktum & Ariko shows the following results: Reformierakond 25%, Keskerakond 22%, EKRE 18%, Isamaa 11%, SDE 11%, E200 4%, EER 2% and EVA 2%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Keskerakond might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.7 growth since the last election. E200, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-9.3) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 53.5% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by RAIT Faktum & Ariko. For this purpose, 1163 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (12.02.2019 - 18.02.2019).

Coalition possibilities

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
12
11.9%
K
26
25.7%
R
29
28.7%
I
13
12.9%
EKRE
21
20.8%
Reformierakond + EKRE + Isamaa
62.4%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond
54.5%
Reformierakond + Isamaa + SDE
53.5%
Keskerakond + Isamaa + SDE
50.5%
Reformierakond + EKRE
49.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by RAIT Faktum & Ariko. The survey took place between 12.02.2019 and 18.02.2019 among 1163 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Reformierakond 25%, Keskerakond 22%, EKRE 18%, Isamaa 11%, SDE 11%, E200 4%, EER 2% and EVA 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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