Estonia: Polls and trends for the Estonian election 2027

In the current election trend in Estonia, Isamaa leads with 26.6%. This is a significant increase of +18.4 percentage points since the last election.

EKRE lands at 19.4% and gains +3.3 percentage points since the last election.

Reformierakond reaches 17.9%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-13.3).

SDE reaches 14.9%. This is a significant increase of +5.6 percentage points since the last election.

Keskerakond reaches 9.8%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.5).

E200 (4.9%), Parempoolsed (3.8%), EER (1.3%) and KOOS (1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

0.4% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Norstat for Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, Kantar Emor and Turu-uuringute AS, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 3476 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: Isamaa, EKRE, Reformierakond, SDE and Keskerakond reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Estonia shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

In the parliament of Estonia, there are 101 representatives from 6 parties. 54 representatives are part of the government from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. The opposition from EKRE, Keskerakond and E200 has 47 representatives.

25 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 62 representatives are politically more right-leaning.