EU-Parliament: Polls and trends for the European Parliament election 2024

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

EPP
20.1
S&D
19.4
ID
12.1
ECR
11.4
RE
11.2
NI
7.0
LEFT
5.9
G/EFA
5.5
Sonst.
7.4
Development since the last election on 26.05.2019
Next election: 06.06.2024
The next elections of the EU parliament will be held in 98.

How the Election Trend for the European Parliament is Calculated

The election trend calculates a current trend for the EU Parliament from current election polls. Individual election trends from the election polls of the various EU member countries for the European Parliament are used for this purpose. These election trends of the member countries are then weighted differently to form the EU election trend. The weighting is based on the seats each country receives in the EU Parliament.

If there are no current election polls available for a country for the European Parliament election, we use the election trend for the parliamentary election of that respective country as a forecast. If an institute publishes election polls based on seats won instead of percentage values, we convert the seat values into percentage points. These polls are marked with an icon in the detailed lists of the election polls.

The assignment of parties to factions in the EU Parliament is done using various criteria. These include, for example, membership in past electoral periods, statements from politicians and parties, as well as analyses from other political platforms. Parties whose affiliation with a faction cannot be clearly determined are listed as Others.

Representative surveys are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. In addition, election polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is changed by the institutes based on various criteria so that it closely approximates the possible outcome of the European Parliament election in a country. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

How Does the European Parliament Election Work?

For the European Parliament election, all EU member countries conduct their own elections in their countries. The electoral systems vary from country to country and differ, among other things, regarding minimum age, threshold, or calculation procedures for seats.

Each country has a predefined quota of representatives sent to the EU Parliament. Based on the national election results of the European Parliament election, the representatives are determined and enter the EU Parliament. There, the representatives form factions, which can be categorized, for example, based on their political orientation.

Note: Not all countries conduct polls for the European elections. Election polls for the European elections are therefore tagged "EU Parliament". For all other countries, the current election trend of the national parliament is taken into account.
Belgium
· 22 / 720 seats
14.9
13.8
12.2
9.6
9.5
8.9
8.2
6.5
5.7
4.6
3.6
2.1
0.8
Bulgaria
· 17 / 720 seats
27.2
19.9
14.1
12.9
10.2
4.8
2
1.9
Croatia
· 12 / 720 seats
31.2
18.2
9.9
9.9
9.6
3.6
3
2.7
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.9
Cyprus
· 6 / 720 seats
27.8
25.7
17.4
9.7
4.9
3.3
3.2
1.8
6.2
Czech Republic
· 21 / 720 seats
33.4
13.6
11.2
9.9
6.8
5.2
3.9
3.8
3.2
2.2
1.9
1.4
0.5
Denmark
· 15 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
22
12
11
10
9
7
7
7
6
6
1
Germany
· 96 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
26.6
18.2
15.6
10.7
7.6
4.9
4.1
3.3
2.9
2.6
1.3
2.2
Spain
· 61 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
37.5
28.8
11.4
9.4
3.5
3
3
1.6
1.1
0.7
France
· 81 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
29
17.7
10.3
7.8
7.8
7.2
6.7
2.9
2.7
2.2
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
Greece
· 21 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
34.3
14.3
9.6
8.5
4.1
3.5
3.2
2.7
2.4
4.4
Italy
· 76 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
27.9
19.7
16
8.7
7.5
3.8
3.7
3.4
2.9
1.5
1.5
3.4
Latvia
· 9 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
17.9
16.5
9.2
9.1
8.9
7.5
7.4
6.6
4
3.5
3.2
6.2
Malta
· 6 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
47.9
41
11.1
Netherlands
· 31 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
Austria
· 20 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
27.1
22.6
21.7
13.8
10.1
2.5
2.2
Poland
· 53 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
36.1
30.6
9.1
8
Romania
· 33 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
30.6
19.7
19.1
12.8
6
4.7
2.2
1.7
1.4
1.3
0.5
Slovenia
· 9 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
19.9
15.8
15.8
8.6
5.1
34.8
Estonia
· 7 / 720 seats
26.9
18.4
17.8
14.3
9.9
5.8
2.7
2.1
0.1
Finland
· 15 / 720 seats
21.7
19.9
19.8
11
8.8
8.1
3.9
3.4
1.6
1.8
Hungary
· 21 / 720 seats
45.5
18.6
8.8
6.9
5.9
3.3
3
2.3
2.1
1.4
2.2
Ireland
· 14 / 720 seats
28.4
19
18.7
4.6
4.4
4
2.4
1.9
16.6
Lithuania
· 11 / 720 seats
21
17.2
14.1
13.5
7.9
7.2
5
4.5
4
2.1
0.2
Luxembourg
· 6 / 720 seats
29.2
18.9
18.7
9.3
8.6
6.7
3.9
2.5
0.6
1.6
Portugal
· 21 / 720 seats
31.3
27.2
17.4
5.8
5.1
3.5
2.6
1.8
5.3
Slovakia
· 15 / 720 seats
22.3
21.7
16.3
7.2
6
5.1
4.5
3.7
3.2
2.3
1.6
0.1
Sweden
· 21 / 720 seats
35.6
21.1
18.3
7.9
4.5
4.1
3.4
3.3
1.8

EU-Parliament — National parliament voting intention