Latest voting intention survey by BiDiMedia for EU-Parliament
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in EU-Parliament conducted by BiDiMedia, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 26.8%, Partito Democratico 21.4%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15%, Lega 9.4%, Forza Italia 8.4%, AVS 4.5%, SUE 4.5%, Azione 3.9%, Libertà 2.5%, PTD 2%, AP 0.5% and SVP 0.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 810 people during the period 23.05.2024 - 23.05.2024.
810 participants
23.05.2024 - 23.05.2024
BiDiMedia
Seats in parliament
96
Majority requires 49 seats
SUE
4
4.5%
L
2
2.5%
M5S
15
15.1%
AVS
5
4.5%
PTD
1
2%
PD
21
21.5%
A
3
3.9%
FI
9
8.5%
FdI
26
27%
Lega
10
9.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in BiDiMedia pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.