Current election polls and polling data from Institut Wahlkreisprognose

Latest voting intention survey by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for EU-Parliament

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in EU-Parliament conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 30.5%, AfD 15%, Grüne 15%, SPD 13.5%, BSW 6%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 3%, Freie Wähler 2.5%, Die PARTEI 1.5% and Tierschutzpartei 1.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2000 people during the period 01.06.2024 - 01.06.2024.
2000 participants
27.05.2024 - 01.06.2024
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Union
30.5
-0.5
AfD
15.0
-1.0
Grüne
15.0
±0.0
SPD
13.5
+1.0
BSW
6.0
-0.5
FDP
4.0
+0.5
Linke
3.0
±0.0
FW
2.5
±0.0
PARTEI
1.5
±0.0
Tier
1.5
-0.5
Others
7.5
+1.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

96
Majority requires 49 seats
Linke
3
3.1%
PARTEI
1
1%
Tier
1
1%
SPD
15
15.6%
Grüne
16
16.7%
BSW
6
6.3%
FDP
4
4.2%
Union
32
33.3%
FW
2
2.1%
AfD
16
16.7%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD
65.6%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
56.3%
CDU/CSU + AfD + BSW
56.3%
CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW
55.2%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
54.2%
CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP
54.2%
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
53.1%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
50.0%
CDU/CSU + AfD
50.0%
CDU/CSU + SPD
49.0%

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieves a score of 87/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AfD
9
76
15
BSW
7
72
21
CDU/CSU
29
57
14
FDP
4
90
6
FW
5
90
5
Grüne
18
69
13
Linke
13
85
3
PARTEI
Not enough data available
SPD
11
63
26
Tier
Not enough data available

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

constituency forecasts

The institute Wahlkreisprognose is a young opinion research institute that regularly collects poll data on federal elections as well as state elections. In addition, the institute calculates data down to the constituency level. Among experts, however, the reliability of such fine surveys is disputed.