Latest voting intention survey by Taloustutkimus for EU-Parliament
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in EU-Parliament conducted by Taloustutkimus, the parties received the following results: Kokoomus 20.6%, SDP 19.4%, Perussuomalaiset 16.5%, Suomen Keskusta 11.9%, Vasemmistoliitto 10.8%, Vihreä liitto 9.3%, Svenska folkpartiet 4.2%, Kristillisdemokraatit 4% and Liike Nyt 1.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2111 people during the period 04.06.2024 - 04.06.2024.
2111 participants
04.06.2024 - 04.06.2024
Taloustutkimus
Seats in parliament
96
Majority requires 49 seats
VAS
10
11%
SDP
20
19.8%
VIHR
9
9.5%
KESK
11
12.2%
SFP
4
4.3%
KOK
21
21.1%
KD
3
4.1%
LIIK
1
1.1%
PS
17
16.9%
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Taloustutkimus pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.