Latest voting intention survey by Taloustutkimus for Finland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Finland conducted by Taloustutkimus, the parties received the following results: SDP 23.2%, Kokoomus 20%, Perussuomalaiset 14.9%, Suomen Keskusta 13.1%, Vasemmistoliitto 8.9%, Vihreä liitto 8.3%, Kristillisdemokraatit 3.9%, Svenska folkpartiet 3.9% and Liike Nyt 1.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2533 people during the period 07.01.2025 - 07.01.2025. The survey was commissioned by Yle.
2533 participants
09.12.2024 - 07.01.2025
Taloustutkimus
Yle
Seats in parliament
200
Majority requires 101 seats
VAS
18
9%
SDP
48
24%
VIHR
17
8.5%
KESK
27
13.5%
SFP
8
4%
KOK
41
20.5%
KD
8
4%
LIIK
3
1.5%
PS
30
15%
SDP + Kokoomus + Suomen Keskusta
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vasemmistoliitto + Vihreä liitto
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Svenska folkpartiet + Kristillisdemokraatit
SDP + Kokoomus + Vihreä liitto
Kokoomus + Perussuomalaiset + Suomen Keskusta + Svenska folkpartiet
Kokoomus + Perussuomalaiset + Suomen Keskusta + Kristillisdemokraatit
SDP + Kokoomus + Svenska folkpartiet + Kristillisdemokraatit
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Svenska folkpartiet + Liike Nyt
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Kristillisdemokraatit + Liike Nyt
Kokoomus + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Svenska folkpartiet + Kristillisdemokraatit
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vasemmistoliitto + Svenska folkpartiet
Kokoomus + Perussuomalaiset + Suomen Keskusta + Liike Nyt
SDP + Kokoomus + Kristillisdemokraatit + Liike Nyt
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Svenska folkpartiet
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Kristillisdemokraatit
SDP + Kokoomus + Svenska folkpartiet + Liike Nyt
Kokoomus + Perussuomalaiset + Suomen Keskusta
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Taloustutkimus pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.9 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.93
|
Parliamentary Election in Finnland 2023 | 2/2 |
|
0.79
|
Parliamentary Election in Finnland 2019 | 1/3 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.