Latest Opinion Poll for the Finland Election (Kantar Public, June 15, 2023)

May 15, 2023 - June 15, 2023

2754 respondents

Next General election in Finland: 2027

The next General election in Finland is expected in 2027.

Finland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Kantar Public projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 32.5% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Kantar Public?

In the latest opinion poll for the Finnish election, conducted by Kantar Public on June 15, 2023, Perussuomalaiset leads with 20.9%. Trailing are SDP: 19.2%, Suomen Keskusta: 10.2%, Vasemmistoliitto: 8%, Vihreä liitto: 7.7%, Svenska folkpartiet: 4.4%, Kristillisdemokraatit: 4% and Liike Nyt: 2%. Other parties secure 2.3% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Kantar Public Projection?

55

PolitPro Score

Kantar Public achieved a PolitPro Score of 55 out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Kantar Public's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Kantar Public at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

200
Majority requires 101 seats

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the Finnish election.

Kokoomus + SDP + Suomen Keskusta
Centre
53.5%
Kokoomus + Perussuomalaiset + Suomen Keskusta
Centre
53.5%
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vasemmistoliitto + Vihreä liitto + Svenska folkpartiet
Centre-Left
52.5%
Kokoomus + SDP + Vihreä liitto
Centre-Left
50.5%
Kokoomus + SDP + Kristillisdemokraatit + Svenska folkpartiet
Centre-Left
49.5%
Kokoomus + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Kristillisdemokraatit + Svenska folkpartiet
Centre
49.5%
Kokoomus + Perussuomalaiset + Kristillisdemokraatit + Svenska folkpartiet
Centre
49.5%
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vasemmistoliitto + Vihreä liitto
Centre-Left
49.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Verian)

According to Verian, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Finnish parliament: Kokoomus with 44 representatives, Perussuomalaiset with 40 representatives, SDP with 40 representatives, Suomen Keskusta with 23 representatives, Vasemmistoliitto with 18 representatives, Vihreä liitto with 17 representatives, Kristillisdemokraatit with 8 representatives, Svenska folkpartiet with 7 representatives and Liike Nyt with 3 representatives.

The Electoral System in Finland

The Finnish Parliament (Eduskunta) comprises 200 members elected for a four-year term. The country is divided into 13 electoral districts. Finland employs a system of proportional representation with open lists: voters must cast their ballot for a specific candidate, not just a party. The total votes for all candidates of a party determine that party's seat allocation, while individual candidate votes decide who from the list enters Parliament. An exception is Åland, which holds one fixed seat in the Eduskunta.

Electoral Thresholds

Unlike many other European nations, Finland does not impose a statutory percentage electoral threshold (e.g., a 5% hurdle) at the national level. Instead, the effective threshold for entering Parliament stems from the number of seats in each electoral district – known as the 'natural quorum'. In multi-seat districts like Helsinki, smaller parties find it easier to secure a mandate than in smaller constituencies. This system fosters a diverse party landscape within the Eduskunta.

Government Formation and Traditions

As no single party in Finland typically secures an absolute majority, coalition governments are the norm. These often comprise four or more parties to ensure a stable parliamentary majority. Following an election, the leader of the largest party spearheads government formation negotiations. A defining feature is the detailed government program, which serves as a binding operational framework for the entire legislative term. Once formed, the government must be confirmed by the Eduskunta through the election of the Prime Minister.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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