Latest Opinion Poll for the Finland Election (Kantar TNS, March 13, 2020)

February 15, 2020 - March 13, 2020

2234 respondents

Next General Election in Finland: 2027

The next General Election in Finland is expected in 2027.

Finland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Kantar TNS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 44.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Kantar TNS?

According to the latest national poll in Finland by Kantar TNS, Perussuomalaiset leads with 21.6%. They are followed by SDP: 17.1%, Kokoomus: 16.9%, Vihreä liitto: 12.4%, Suomen Keskusta: 12%, Vasemmistoliitto: 8%, Svenska folkpartiet: 4.4% and Kristillisdemokraatit: 3.7%. Other parties secure 3.9% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Kantar TNS Projection?

89

PolitPro Score

Kantar TNS achieved a PolitPro Score of 89 out of 100.

0.8

Election Accuracy

On average, Kantar TNS's figures deviate by 0.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the Finnish election.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Kantar TNS)

According to Kantar TNS, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Finnish parliament: Perussuomalaiset with 46 representatives, SDP with 36 representatives, Kokoomus with 35 representatives, Vihreä liitto with 26 representatives, Suomen Keskusta with 25 representatives, Vasemmistoliitto with 16 representatives, Svenska folkpartiet with 9 representatives and Kristillisdemokraatit with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Finland

The Finnish Parliament (Eduskunta) comprises 200 members elected for a four-year term. The country is divided into 13 electoral districts. Finland employs a system of proportional representation with open lists: voters must cast their ballot for a specific candidate, not just a party. The total votes for all candidates of a party determine that party's seat allocation, while individual candidate votes decide who from the list enters Parliament. An exception is Åland, which holds one fixed seat in the Eduskunta.

Electoral Thresholds

Unlike many other European nations, Finland does not impose a statutory percentage electoral threshold (e.g., a 5% hurdle) at the national level. Instead, the effective threshold for entering Parliament stems from the number of seats in each electoral district – known as the 'natural quorum'. In multi-seat districts like Helsinki, smaller parties find it easier to secure a mandate than in smaller constituencies. This system fosters a diverse party landscape within the Eduskunta.

Government Formation and Traditions

As no single party in Finland typically secures an absolute majority, coalition governments are the norm. These often comprise four or more parties to ensure a stable parliamentary majority. Following an election, the leader of the largest party spearheads government formation negotiations. A defining feature is the detailed government program, which serves as a binding operational framework for the entire legislative term. Once formed, the government must be confirmed by the Eduskunta through the election of the Prime Minister.

Data Sources and Methodology

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