Latest Opinion Poll for the Finland Election (Kantar TNS, March 25, 2023)

March 9, 2023 - March 25, 2023

2002 respondents

Next General election in Finland: 2027

The next General election in Finland is expected in 2027.

Finland's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Kantar TNS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 44.5% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Kantar TNS?

In the latest opinion poll for the Finnish election, conducted by Kantar TNS on March 25, 2023, Kokoomus leads with 19.8%. Trailing are Perussuomalaiset: 19.2%, SDP: 19.2%, Suomen Keskusta: 11.4%, Vihreä liitto: 8.4%, Vasemmistoliitto: 8.3%, Svenska folkpartiet: 4.5%, Kristillisdemokraatit: 4% and Liike Nyt: 1.9%. Other parties secure 3.3% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Kantar TNS Projection?

89

PolitPro Score

Kantar TNS achieved a PolitPro Score of 89 out of 100.

0.8

Election Accuracy

On average, Kantar TNS's figures deviate by 0.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

200
Majority requires 101 seats

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the Finnish election.

Kokoomus + Perussuomalaiset + Suomen Keskusta
Centre
52.0%
Kokoomus + SDP + Vihreä liitto
Centre-Left
51.5%
Kokoomus + SDP + Suomen Keskusta
Centre
51.5%
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Vasemmistoliitto + Svenska folkpartiet
Left
51.5%
Kokoomus + Perussuomalaiset + Svenska folkpartiet + Kristillisdemokraatit
Centre
51.0%
Kokoomus + SDP + Svenska folkpartiet + Kristillisdemokraatit
Centre-Left
50.5%
Kokoomus + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Svenska folkpartiet + Kristillisdemokraatit
Centre
49.5%
SDP + Suomen Keskusta + Vihreä liitto + Vasemmistoliitto
Left
47.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Kantar TNS)

According to Kantar TNS, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Finnish parliament: Kokoomus with 44 representatives, Perussuomalaiset with 41 representatives, SDP with 40 representatives, Suomen Keskusta with 19 representatives, Vihreä liitto with 19 representatives, Vasemmistoliitto with 16 representatives, Svenska folkpartiet with 9 representatives, Kristillisdemokraatit with 8 representatives and Liike Nyt with 4 representatives.

The Electoral System in Finland

The Finnish Parliament (Eduskunta) comprises 200 members elected for a four-year term. The country is divided into 13 electoral districts. Finland employs a system of proportional representation with open lists: voters must cast their ballot for a specific candidate, not just a party. The total votes for all candidates of a party determine that party's seat allocation, while individual candidate votes decide who from the list enters Parliament. An exception is Åland, which holds one fixed seat in the Eduskunta.

Electoral Thresholds

Unlike many other European nations, Finland does not impose a statutory percentage electoral threshold (e.g., a 5% hurdle) at the national level. Instead, the effective threshold for entering Parliament stems from the number of seats in each electoral district – known as the 'natural quorum'. In multi-seat districts like Helsinki, smaller parties find it easier to secure a mandate than in smaller constituencies. This system fosters a diverse party landscape within the Eduskunta.

Government Formation and Traditions

As no single party in Finland typically secures an absolute majority, coalition governments are the norm. These often comprise four or more parties to ensure a stable parliamentary majority. Following an election, the leader of the largest party spearheads government formation negotiations. A defining feature is the detailed government program, which serves as a binding operational framework for the entire legislative term. Once formed, the government must be confirmed by the Eduskunta through the election of the Prime Minister.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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