Current Election Trend for France
Who is leading in the election trend in France?
In the current election trend in France, Rassemblement national leads with 28%. This is a significant increase of +10.7 percentage points since the last election.
Ensemble reaches 17%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-21.6).
Parti socialiste reaches 10%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
Les Verts reaches 9%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
Les Républicains reaches 8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+1.0 percentage points).
Reconquête reaches 6.5%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
La France insoumise reaches 6%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
Parti communiste français reaches 3%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
Parti radical de gauche reaches 3%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
EAC reaches 2.5%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
Debout la France reaches 2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
Animaliste reaches 1.5%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
3.5% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Ifop, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.
Therefore, the will of at least 1090 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 12 parties could enter parliament: Rassemblement national, Ensemble, Parti socialiste, Les Verts, Les Républicains, Reconquête, La France insoumise, Parti communiste français, Parti radical de gauche, EAC, Debout la France and Animaliste reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament
Latest polls for France
What is the latest poll for France?
Coalitions
Which coalitions are currently possible in France?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in France shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Election trend by party at a glance
Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rassemblement national |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+2.0
|
+8.0
|
+10.7
|
Ensemble |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-8.0
|
-21.6
|
Parti socialiste |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+1.0
|
±0.0
|
+10.0
|
Les Verts |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+9.0
|
Les Républicains |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-3.0
|
-2.5
|
+1.0
|
Reconquête |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-0.5
|
+1.5
|
+6.5
|
La France insoumise |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-2.0
|
±0.0
|
+6.0
|
Parti communiste français |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-1.0
|
±0.0
|
+3.0
|
Parti radical de gauche |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+3.0
|
EAC |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+2.5
|
Debout la France |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-2.0
|
±0.0
|
+2.0
|
Animaliste |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+1.5
|
France — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of France?
In the parliament of France, there are 577 representatives from 9 parties. 244 representatives are part of the government from Ensemble. The opposition from NUPES, Rassemblement national, Les Républicains, Divers gauche, Regionalists, Divers droite, UDI and Sonstige Parteien has 333 representatives.
153 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 163 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in France?
Parliamentary election in France 2027
The Parliamentary election in France 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Gabriel Attal is currently governing with a website.coalition-orientation-other of Ensemble and Mouvement démocrate. In the last Parliamentary election in France in 2022, Ensemble (38.6% - 244 seats), NUPES (31.6% - 131 seats), Rassemblement national (17.3% - 89 seats), Les Républicains (7% - 61 seats), Divers gauche (2.1% - 22 seats), Regionalists (1.3% - 10 seats), Divers droite (1.1% - 10 seats), UDI (0.3% - 3 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (0.7% - 7 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 46.2%.