Latest voting intention survey by Cluster17 for France
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in France conducted by Cluster17, the parties received the following results: Rassemblement national 35%, NFP 29.5%, Ensemble 20%, Les Républicains 7.5%, Divers droite 1.5%, Lutte Ouvrière 1.5%, Reconquête 1.5%, Divers centre 1% and Divers gauche 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1745 people during the period 24.06.2024 - 24.06.2024.
1745 participants
22.06.2024 - 24.06.2024
Cluster17
RN
35.0
+3.0
NFP
29.5
-0.5
EN
20.0
+1.0
LR
7.5
+0.5
DVD
1.5
-1.0
LO
1.5
+0.5
REC
1.5
-1.0
DVC
1.0
+1.0
DVG
1.0
-2.0
Others
1.5
-1.5
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
577
Majority requires 289 seats
LO
9
1.6%
NFP
172
29.8%
DVG
6
1%
DVC
6
1%
EN
117
20.3%
LR
44
7.6%
RN
205
35.5%
DVD
9
1.6%
REC
9
1.6%
Rassemblement national + NFP
Rassemblement national + Ensemble
NFP + Ensemble
42
PolitPro Score
Cluster17 achieves a score of 42/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
3.0
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Cluster17 pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.0 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.05
|
Parliamentary Election in Frankreich 2024 | 2/8 |
|
4.97
|
Parliamentary Election in Frankreich 2022 | 1/4 |
|
2.1
|
Parliamentary Election in Frankreich 2022 | 6/12 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.