Latest voting intention survey by ELABE for France
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in France conducted by ELABE, the parties received the following results: Rassemblement national 36%, NFP 27.5%, Ensemble 20%, Les Républicains 9%, Divers gauche 2%, Reconquête 1.5%, Extrême gauche 1% and Divers centre 0.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2004 people during the period 27.06.2024 - 27.06.2024.
2004 participants
26.06.0204 - 27.06.2024
ELABE
RN
36.0
±0.0
NFP
27.5
+0.5
EN
20.0
+20.0
LR
9.0
-1.0
DVG
2.0
±0.0
REC
1.5
±0.0
EXG
1.0
±0.0
DVC
0.5
+0.5
Others
2.5
-20.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
577
Majority requires 289 seats
EXG
6
1%
NFP
163
28.2%
DVG
12
2.1%
DVC
3
0.5%
EN
118
20.5%
LR
53
9.2%
RN
213
36.9%
REC
9
1.6%
Rassemblement national + NFP
Rassemblement national + Ensemble
NFP + Ensemble + Divers gauche
NFP + Ensemble + Extrême gauche
NFP + Ensemble + Divers centre
63
PolitPro Score
ELABE achieves a score of 63/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.3
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in ELABE pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.3 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.43
|
Parliamentary Election in Frankreich 2024 | 8/8 |
|
2.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Frankreich 2022 | 8/12 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.