Latest voting intention survey by Harris x Toluna for France
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in France conducted by Harris x Toluna, the parties received the following results: Rassemblement national 37%, NFP 28%, Ensemble 20%, Les Républicains 6%, Divers droite 2%, Reconquête 2%, Divers centre 1%, Divers gauche 1% and Extrême gauche 0.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2443 people during the period 28.06.2024 - 28.06.2024.
2443 participants
28.06.2024 - 28.06.2024
Harris x Toluna
Seats in parliament
577
Majority requires 289 seats
EXG
3
0.5%
NFP
165
28.7%
DVG
6
1%
DVC
6
1%
EN
118
20.5%
LR
36
6.2%
RN
219
37.9%
DVD
12
2.1%
REC
12
2.1%
Rassemblement national + NFP
Rassemblement national + Ensemble
NFP + Ensemble + Divers droite
NFP + Ensemble + Divers gauche
NFP + Ensemble + Divers centre
NFP + Ensemble + Extrême gauche
NFP + Ensemble
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Harris x Toluna pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
2.1
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.