Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for France
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in France conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: Rassemblement national 36%, NFP 29%, Ensemble 20%, Les Républicains 8%, Divers centre 1.5%, Divers gauche 1%, Extrême gauche 1% and Reconquête 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 10286 people during the period 28.06.2024.
10286 participants
28.06.2024
Ipsos
Seats in parliament
577
Majority requires 289 seats
EXG
6
1%
NFP
172
29.8%
DVG
6
1%
DVC
9
1.6%
EN
118
20.5%
LR
47
8.1%
RN
213
36.9%
REC
6
1%
Rassemblement national + NFP
Rassemblement national + Ensemble
NFP + Ensemble
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.3 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.3
|
Parliamentary Election in Frankreich 2024 | 6/7 |
|
5.8
|
Parliamentary Election in Frankreich 2022 | 2/4 |
|
1.89
|
Parliamentary Election in Frankreich 2022 | 3/12 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.