Latest Election Polls by OpinionWay

About OpinionWay

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by OpinionWay

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
Debout la France
Conservative
0
98
2
Divers droite
Conservative
40
40
20
Divers gauche
Social Democratic
Ensemble
Big-tent party
10
61
28
Extrême gauche
Left-wing
Les Républicains
Centre-Right
20
62
18
NFP
Left
11
44
44
Rassemblement national
Right-wing Populist
1
49
49
Reconquête
Right-wing Populist
46
49
5

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of OpinionWay

2.1

Election Accuracy

On average, OpinionWay's figures deviate by 2.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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