France: Poll by Harris x Toluna from 26.06.2024

France: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
RN
37.0
+4.0
NFP
27.0
±0.0
EN
21.0
+1.0
LR
6.0
+2.0
DVD
2.0
±0.0
REC
2.0
±0.0
DVG
1.0
±0.0
DVC
0.5
+0.5
EXG
0.5
-0.5
Others
3.0
-7.0
Development since the last election on 30.06.2024
RN
+7.8
NFP
-1.0
EN
+1.0
LR
-0.6
DVD
-1.7
REC
+1.3
DVG
-0.5
DVC
-0.7
EXG
-0.6
Harris x Toluna – 2251 respondents – 25.06.2024-26.06.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in France is expected to take place in 2029.

Election poll results

France - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in France from Harris x Toluna shows the following results: Rassemblement national 37%, NFP 27%, Ensemble 21%, Les Républicains 6%, Divers droite 2%, Reconquête 2%, Divers gauche 1%, Divers centre 0.5% and Extrême gauche 0.5%. If an election were held in France this Sunday, Rassemblement national might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.8 growth since the last election. Divers droite, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

François Bayrou is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Ensemble and Les Républicains. With 27.9% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Harris x Toluna. For this purpose, 2251 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (25.06.2024 - 26.06.2024).

Coalition possibilities

577
Majority requires 289 seats
EXG
3
0.5%
NFP
160
27.7%
DVG
6
1%
DVC
3
0.5%
EN
125
21.7%
LR
36
6.2%
RN
220
38.1%
DVD
12
2.1%
REC
12
2.1%
Rassemblement national + NFP
65.9%
Rassemblement national + Ensemble
59.8%
NFP + Ensemble + Divers droite
51.5%
NFP + Ensemble + Divers gauche
50.4%
NFP + Ensemble + Extrême gauche
49.9%
NFP + Ensemble + Divers centre
49.9%
NFP + Ensemble
49.4%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in France was conducted by Harris x Toluna. The survey took place between 25.06.2024 and 26.06.2024 among 2251 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Rassemblement national 37%, NFP 27%, Ensemble 21%, Les Républicains 6%, Divers droite 2%, Reconquête 2%, Divers gauche 1%, Divers centre 0.5% and Extrême gauche 0.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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