France: Poll by Harris x Toluna from 28.06.2024

Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
RN
37.0
±0.0
NFP
28.0
+1.0
EN
20.0
-1.0
LR
6.0
±0.0
DVD
2.0
±0.0
REC
2.0
±0.0
DVC
1.0
+0.5
DVG
1.0
±0.0
EXG
0.5
±0.0
Others
2.5
-0.5
Harris x Toluna – 2443 respondents – 27.06.2024-28.06.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in France is expected to take place in 2029.

Election poll results

France - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in France from Harris x Toluna shows the following results: Rassemblement national 37%, NFP 28%, Ensemble 20%, Les Républicains 6%, Divers droite 2%, Reconquête 2%, Divers centre 1%, Divers gauche 1% and Extrême gauche 0.5%. If an election were held in France this Sunday, Rassemblement national might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.8 growth since the last election. Divers droite, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

François Bayrou is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Ensemble and Les Républicains. With 26.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Harris x Toluna. For this purpose, 2443 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (27.06.2024 - 28.06.2024).

Coalition possibilities

577
Majority requires 289 seats
EXG
3
0.5%
NFP
165
28.6%
DVG
6
1%
DVC
6
1%
EN
118
20.5%
LR
36
6.2%
RN
219
38%
DVD
12
2.1%
REC
12
2.1%
Rassemblement national + NFP
66.6%
Rassemblement national + Ensemble
58.4%
NFP + Ensemble + Divers droite
51.1%
NFP + Ensemble + Divers gauche
50.1%
NFP + Ensemble + Divers centre
50.1%
NFP + Ensemble + Extrême gauche
49.6%
NFP + Ensemble
49.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in France was conducted by Harris x Toluna. The survey took place between 27.06.2024 and 28.06.2024 among 2443 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Rassemblement national 37%, NFP 28%, Ensemble 20%, Les Républicains 6%, Divers droite 2%, Reconquête 2%, Divers centre 1%, Divers gauche 1% and Extrême gauche 0.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.