Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Georgia (GORBI, October 21, 2024)

October 12, 2024 - October 21, 2024

1704 respondents

Next General election in Georgia: 2028

The next General election in Georgia is expected in 2028.

Who is leading in the latest poll from GORBI?

In the latest opinion poll for the Georgian election, conducted by GORBI on October 21, 2024, GD leads with 60.2%. Trailing behind are Unity: 15.4%, CfC: 9%, SG: 3.3%, ForGeo: 2.9%, Girchi: 2.8%, LP: 2% and AP: 1.9%. Other parties secure 2.5% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the GORBI Projection?

?

PolitPro Score

GORBI achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

4.0

Election Accuracy

On average, GORBI's figures deviate by 4.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

GORBI at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

150
Majority requires 76 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Georgia is 5%.

GD
Unknown
71.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: GORBI)

According to data from GORBI, 3 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Georgia parliament: GD with 107 representatives, Unity with 28 representatives and CfC with 15 representatives.

The Electoral System in Georgia

Georgia's Parliament (Sakartvelos Parlamenti) comprises 150 members, elected for a four-year term. The October 2024 election marked the complete abolition of the previous mixed-member electoral system. The Parliament is now elected solely through proportional representation within a single nationwide constituency. A significant innovation was the introduction of an electronic voting system in most polling stations, where ballots are machine-scanned and counted to enhance the speed and transparency of results.

Electoral Thresholds

Since 2024, a nationwide electoral threshold of 5% applies for entry into the Georgian Parliament. Previously, this threshold had been temporarily lowered to 1%. A key tightening of the new rules is the prohibition of official electoral alliances (party blocs). Consequently, parties must either individually clear the 5% hurdle or formally merge to compete jointly. This regulation aims to consolidate the party landscape, yet significantly complicates parliamentary representation for smaller opposition parties.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Georgia mandates a simple majority of at least 76 out of 150 parliamentary seats. The Prime Minister is nominated by the party or coalition holding the most mandates. As Georgia operates under a parliamentary system, actual executive power rests with the Prime Minister and their cabinet, while the President primarily performs representative duties. The political landscape is highly polarized, often hindering the formation of broad, cross-party coalitions and frequently leading to the dominance of a single powerful force.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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