PolitPro

Georgia GORBI: Poll for Georgia's Parliamentary Election, 5 July 2025

Strongest Force
GD
45.5 points ahead of SG
Election year
2028
estimated

Georgia Parliamentary Election: Voting Intention Poll

The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. A single poll by GORBI: for Georgia's Parliamentary election, with fieldwork concluding on 5 July 2025.

Changes since the last election on 26 October 2024

GD
56.2
+2.1
SG
10.7
+1.9
10.0
+2.2
CfC
9.5
-1.4
UNM
7.5
+7.5
Gi
3.2
+0.2
AP
1.8
-0.6
Other
1.1
Institute
GORBI
Survey Period
22/06/2025 – 05/07/2025
Respondents
2,300

Who is leading according to the poll by GORBI?

A recent voting intention poll for Georgia by GORBI shows GD leading with 56.2%, followed by SG with 10.7%, ForGeo with 10%, CfC with 9.5%, UNM with 7.5%, Girchi with 3.2% and AP with 1.8%. Other parties achieve 1.1% of the votes.

What do the symbols mean?

To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.

  • Far-Left
  • Left
  • Centre-Left
  • Center
  • Transversal
  • Unknown
  • Centre-Right
  • Right
  • Far-Right
  • Liberal
  • Environment & Climate
  • Regional
  • Animal Welfare
  • Satire

Seat projection based on this poll

GORBI: how reliable is the projection?

? PolitPro Score

No score calculated yet

Avg. deviation in elections
4.0 pp

1 election comparisons

Recorded polls
6

Last on 5 July 2025

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Coalition calculator: majorities based on this poll

0
76
0 150
Majority 76

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

Scenarios: What if...?

Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.

Advertisement

PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. GD
    100%
  2. SG
    0%
  3. ForGeo
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. GD
    100%
  2. SG
    0%
  3. ForGeo
    0%

Probability of Entering Parliament

  1. UNM
    97%
  2. Gi
    5%
  3. AP
    <1%

How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

GORBI: Projected composition of parliament

Based on this poll, 5 parties would clear the electoral threshold and secure seats in Georgia's Parliament: GD with 90 seats, SG with 18 seats, ForGeo with 16 seats, CfC with 15 seats and UNM with 11 seats.

Georgia's Electoral System Explained

[ui/faq.electoral-system.body]

Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

[ui/faq.threshold.body]

Government formation and coalition traditions

[ui/faq.government-coalitions.body]

More from PolitPro

Data & Feedback

Political data changes daily. Noticed outdated info, a number, or a date? Write to us – preferably with a source, so we can quickly verify the change.

Support PolitPro

Your support protects PolitPro from the influence of lobby groups and parties.

Data Basis & Transparency

PolitPro

PolitPro combines scientific data and current poll values to make politics tangible for everyone. We use datasets from leading research projects and supplement them with our own research, analyses, and algorithms. This way, we make complex political contexts understandable and accessible to all. Supported by AI.