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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Georgia (ISSA, January 29, 2025)

January 17, 2025 - January 29, 2025

2000 respondents

Next Georgia's General Election: 2028

The next Georgia's General Election is expected in 2028.

Who is leading in the latest poll from ISSA?

According to the latest national poll in Georgia by ISSA, GD secures 35.8% of support, with CfC: 18%, UNM: 16.6%, ForGeo: 10%, SG: 9.5%, Girchi: 2.3%, Patriotta Aliansi: 1.5% and Conservatives for Georgia: 1.3% trailing. Other parties secure 5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Georgia
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Georgia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the ISSA Projection?

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PolitPro Score

ISSA achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, ISSA's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

ISSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Georgia is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • GD
    ??%
  • CfC
    ??%
  • UNM
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • GD
    ??%
  • CfC
    ??%
  • UNM
    ??%
  • ForGeo
    ??%
  • SG
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • UNM
    ??%
  • Gi
    ??%
  • APG
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
GD + CfC
Unknown
60.7%
GD + UNM
Unknown
58.7%
GD + ForGeo
Unknown
50.7%
CfC + UNM + ForGeo
Unknown
50.0%
GD + SG
Unknown
50.0%
CfC + UNM + SG
Unknown
49.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: ISSA)

According to data from ISSA, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Georgia parliament: GD with 60 representatives, CfC with 31 representatives, UNM with 28 representatives, ForGeo with 16 representatives and SG with 15 representatives.

The Electoral System in Georgia

Georgia's Parliament (Sakartvelos Parlamenti) comprises 150 members, elected for a four-year term. The October 2024 election marked the complete abolition of the previous mixed-member electoral system. The Parliament is now elected solely through proportional representation within a single nationwide constituency. A significant innovation was the introduction of an electronic voting system in most polling stations, where ballots are machine-scanned and counted to enhance the speed and transparency of results.

Electoral Thresholds

Since 2024, a nationwide electoral threshold of 5% applies for entry into the Georgian Parliament. Previously, this threshold had been temporarily lowered to 1%. A key tightening of the new rules is the prohibition of official electoral alliances (party blocs). Consequently, parties must either individually clear the 5% hurdle or formally merge to compete jointly. This regulation aims to consolidate the party landscape, yet significantly complicates parliamentary representation for smaller opposition parties.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Georgia mandates a simple majority of at least 76 out of 150 parliamentary seats. The Prime Minister is nominated by the party or coalition holding the most mandates. As Georgia operates under a parliamentary system, actual executive power rests with the Prime Minister and their cabinet, while the President primarily performs representative duties. The political landscape is highly polarized, often hindering the formation of broad, cross-party coalitions and frequently leading to the dominance of a single powerful force.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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