Current Election Trend for Germany
Who is leading in the election trend for the Bundestag election?
In the current election trend in Germany, CDU/CSU leads with 30.4%. This is a significant increase of +6.3 percentage points since the last election.
AfD reaches 17.7%. This is a significant increase of +7.4 percentage points since the last election.
SPD reaches 16.3%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-9.4).
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 13.5% (-1.3).
BSW reaches 6.1%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
FDP (4.5%), Die Linke (3.2%) and Freie Wähler (2.7%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.
5.6% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Forsa for RTL / n-tv, INSA for BILD am Sonntag, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF-Politbarometer, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Verian for FOCUS, Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Infratest dimap for ARD, YouGov, Ipsos, GMS and pollytix, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.
Therefore, the will of at least 17612 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: CDU/CSU, AfD, SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and BSW reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament
Latest polls for Germany
What is the latest poll for Germany?
Coalitions
Which coalitions are currently possible in Germany?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Germany shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Polling the states
Information about the Strongest Parties in the Federal States
The map of the polling results for the federal states shows the strongest party in the election trend of each respective state. The colors of the parties are updated daily based on the latest poll results.
CDU currently leads in the election trend of 8 federal states: Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Hesse, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt and Schleswig-Holstein.
CSU currently leads in the election trend of 1 federal states: Bavaria.
AfD currently leads in the election trend of 4 federal states: Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony and Thuringia.
SPD currently leads in the election trend of 3 federal states: Bremen, Hamburg and Saarland.
Election trend by party at a glance
Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CDU/CSU |
+0.6
|
-1.0
|
+3.6
|
+1.4
|
+6.3
|
AfD |
-0.8
|
-4.0
|
-3.9
|
+2.7
|
+7.4
|
SPD |
+1.1
|
+1.5
|
-0.7
|
-3.4
|
-9.4
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
-0.4
|
-0.1
|
-1.0
|
-3.2
|
-1.3
|
BSW |
+0.1
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+6.1
|
FDP |
-0.4
|
-0.5
|
-2.0
|
-2.6
|
-7.0
|
Die Linke |
+0.1
|
-0.4
|
-1.3
|
-1.3
|
-1.7
|
Freie Wähler |
+0.3
|
-0.5
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+0.3
|
Germany — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of Germany?
In the parliament of Germany, there are 735 representatives from 7 parties. 416 representatives are part of the government from SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP. The opposition from CDU/CSU, AfD, Die Linke and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband has 319 representatives.
364 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 371 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in Germany?
Parliamentary election in Germany 2025
The Parliamentary election in Germany 2025 will probably take place in 2025. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, FDP and SPD. In the last Parliamentary election in Germany in 2021, SPD (25.7% - 206 seats), CDU/CSU (24.1% - 197 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (14.8% - 118 seats), FDP (11.5% - 92 seats), AfD (10.3% - 82 seats), Die Linke (4.9% - 39 seats) and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband (0.1% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 76.6%.