Election trends and current polls for Hamburg

PolitPro Election Trend

The current PolitPro election trend for the next parliamentary elections
SPD
30.9%
+0.8
CDU
15.3%
+0.8
Grüne
25.6%
-0.3
Linke
9.5%
-1.4
FDP
6.9%
-0.4
AfD
7.2%
-0.2
Sonstige
4.6%
+0.7
Changes to last election from 15.02.2015
SPD
-14.7
CDU
-0.6
Grüne
+13.3
Linke
+1.0
FDP
-0.5
AfD
+1.1
Political orientation
SPD
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CDU
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Grüne
nature
Linke
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FDP
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AfD
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The artificial intelligence (AI) of PolitPro analyzes and evaluates current election polls of leading opinion research institutes. In the election trend, it calculates an intelligently weighted average of the values of current Sunday questions. For the calculation always the last values of an institute are used, taking into account the time dependencies as well as different qualitative and quantitative weightings.

The aim of the AI is to get a quick and uncomplicated overview of current political trends.

The displayed change of values always refers to the period of the last 7 days.

Last Sunday questions

Current Sunday questions from leading opinion research institutes
Hamburgische Bürgerschaft
Infratest dimap - 23.01.2020
SPD
32%
+3
CDU
16%
+1
27%
-2
8%
-1
FDP
6%
-1
AfD
7%
±0
4%
±0
Hamburgische Bürgerschaft
Civey - 21.01.2020
SPD
30.2%
-0.2
CDU
15.7%
+2.1
24.9%
+0.8
8.6%
-5.1
FDP
7.2%
-0.2
AfD
6.9%
-0.6
6.5%
+3.2
Hamburgische Bürgerschaft
Infratest dimap - 09.01.2020
SPD
29%
+1
CDU
15%
-2
29%
+3
9%
-2
FDP
7%
+1
AfD
7%
±0
4%
-1
Hamburgische Bürgerschaft
Trend Research Hamburg - 09.01.2020
SPD
32%
±0
CDU
13%
±0
23%
±0
13%
+1
FDP
8%
+1
AfD
8%
±0
4%
±0
Hamburgische Bürgerschaft
Forsa - 06.01.2020
SPD
29%
-1
CDU
16%
+2
26%
+2
10%
-1
FDP
7%
-2
AfD
7%
±0
5%
±0
Data source: dawum.de

Coalition possibilities

Possible coalitions based on the current PolitPro election trend
Whole Parliament
Rot-Grün
59.2%
Grüne + CDU + AfD + FDP
57.5%
SPD + CDU + FDP
55.6%
Grüne + CDU + AfD
50.3%
Grüne + CDU + FDP
50%
Liberale Links-Koalition
49.6%
SPD + CDU
48.4%

The coalitions are determined on the basis of a percentage distribution of seats of all parties represented in parliament. Possible overhang or compensation mandates are not taken into account.

The blocking clause is 5%.

Development of the election trend

The development of all parties since January 2018
SPD
CDU
Grüne
Linke
FDP
AfD

Last election

The results of the last election from 15.02.2015
Seats
Party (min. 0.2%) Percent Seats
SPD 45.6% -2.8% 58 -4
CDU 15.9% -6% 20 -8
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 12.3% 12.3% 15 15
Die Linke 8.5% 2.1% 11 3
FDP 7.4% 0.7% 9 0
AfD 6.1% 6.1% 8 8
Piratenpartei 1.6% -0.5% 0 0
Die PARTEI 0.9% 0.2% 0 0
Neue Liberale 0.5% 0.5% 0 0
ÖDP 0.4% 0.1% 0 0
RENTNER 0.3% -0.2% 0 0
NPD 0.3% -0.6% 0 0
Hamburger Bürger-Liste 0.2% 0.2% 0 0
Scheuerl - Verantwortung für Hamburg 0.2% 0.2% 0 0
In the last election of the 15.02.2015 121 representatives from 6 parliamentary groups were elected to the parliament. The next election takes place on 23.02.2020.