Latest voting intention survey by Civey for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Civey, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 21%, SPD 15%, Grüne 14%, Die Linke 7%, FDP 5%, BSW 4% and Freie Wähler 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 10036 people during the period 20.02.2025 - 20.02.2025. The survey was commissioned by Seven.One.
10036 participants
13.02.2025 - 20.02.2025
Civey
Seven.One
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
48
7.6%
SPD
102
16.2%
Grüne
96
15.2%
FDP
34
5.4%
Union
206
32.7%
AfD
144
22.9%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
78
PolitPro Score
Civey achieves a score of 78/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Latest voting intention surveys by Civey for the federal states
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.7
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Civey pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.7 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.27
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2025 | 9/11 |
|
2.17
|
Parliamentary Election in Hessen 2023 | 5/5 |
|
0.6
|
Parliamentary Election in Bayern 2023 | 2/6 |
|
2.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Berlin 2023 | 6/6 |
|
1.08
|
Parliamentary Election in Niedersachsen 2022 | 4/6 |
|
1.97
|
Parliamentary Election in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2022 | 4/7 |
|
0.82
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 3/12 |
|
3.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Sachsen-Anhalt 2021 | 3/4 |
|
1.68
|
Parliamentary Election in Hamburg 2020 | 4/5 |
|
0.72
|
Parliamentary Election in Thüringen 2019 | 1/4 |
|
3.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Brandenburg 2019 | 4/4 |
|
2.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Sachsen 2019 | 5/5 |
|
0.88
|
Parliamentary Election in Hessen 2018 | 2/4 |
|
1.77
|
Parliamentary Election in Bayern 2018 | 5/5 |
|
1.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Niedersachsen 2017 | 3/4 |
|
1.67
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 7/10 |
|
0.75
|
Parliamentary Election in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2017 | 2/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
Civey for Spiegel Online
Civey is a Berlin-based start-up that conducts online surveys for opinion and market research. The surveys are spread across websites like Spiegel.de, T-Online.de or Focus.de and every visitor can take part in the survey. Additional data such as age, gender, postal code, income and marital status are also requested, and the survey results are weighted differently on the basis of these criteria. Surveys are regularly published on behalf of Spiegel Online for federal elections as well as state elections. There are repeated legal disputes between Civey and Forsa, for example around the methodology of the surveys or advertising claims.