Latest voting intention survey by Civey for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Civey, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 26%, SPD 19%, AfD 19%, Grüne 15%, FDP 7% and Die Linke 5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 10020 people during the period 03.08.2023 - 03.08.2023. The survey was commissioned by Spiegel Online.
10020 participants
27.07.2023 - 03.08.2023
Civey
Spiegel Online
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
34
5.4%
SPD
132
21%
Grüne
104
16.5%
FDP
48
7.6%
Union
180
28.6%
AfD
132
21%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
SPD + Grüne + FDP
Latest voting intention surveys by Civey for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates CDU/CSU higher
In 33% of election polls, Civey rates CDU/CSU higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Civey pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.7 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.6
|
Parliamentary Election in Bayern 2023 | 2/5 |
|
2.17
|
Parliamentary Election in Hessen 2023 | 5/5 |
|
2.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Berlin 2023 | 6/6 |
|
1.08
|
Parliamentary Election in Niedersachsen 2022 | 4/5 |
|
1.97
|
Parliamentary Election in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2022 | 3/6 |
|
0.82
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 3/12 |
|
3.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Sachsen-Anhalt 2021 | 3/4 |
|
1.68
|
Parliamentary Election in Hamburg 2020 | 4/5 |
|
0.72
|
Parliamentary Election in Thüringen 2019 | 1/4 |
|
2.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Sachsen 2019 | 4/4 |
|
3.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Brandenburg 2019 | 4/4 |
|
0.88
|
Parliamentary Election in Hessen 2018 | 2/4 |
|
1.77
|
Parliamentary Election in Bayern 2018 | 4/4 |
|
1.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Niedersachsen 2017 | 3/4 |
|
1.67
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 7/10 |
|
0.75
|
Parliamentary Election in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2017 | 2/5 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.
Civey for Spiegel Online
Civey is a Berlin-based start-up that conducts online surveys for opinion and market research. The surveys are spread across websites like Spiegel.de, T-Online.de or Focus.de and every visitor can take part in the survey. Additional data such as age, gender, postal code, income and marital status are also requested, and the survey results are weighted differently on the basis of these criteria. Surveys are regularly published on behalf of Spiegel Online for federal elections as well as state elections. There are repeated legal disputes between Civey and Forsa, for example around the methodology of the surveys or advertising claims.