Latest voting intention survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 21%, SPD 15%, Grüne 14%, Die Linke 5%, FDP 4% and BSW 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1345 people during the period 23.01.2025 - 23.01.2025. The survey was commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
1345 participants
21.01.2025 - 23.01.2025
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
ZDF-Politbarometer
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
37
5.9%
SPD
111
17.6%
Grüne
104
16.5%
Union
222
35.2%
AfD
156
24.8%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Latest voting intention surveys by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates CSU lower
In 33% of election polls Forschungsgruppe Wahlen rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Grüne higher
In 38% of election polls, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen rates Grüne higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.2
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Forschungsgruppe Wahlen pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.2 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.
ZDF Politikbarometer
Forschungsgruppen Wahlen traditionally collects polling data for the ZDF Politbarometer. The Politbarometer is a monthly program of ZDF, which surveys the current mood on political issues in Germany. In the telephone interviews, around forty questions are asked, some with, some without answer specifications. The Forschungsgruppe Wahlen also provides all forecasts and analyses for the ZDF election broadcasts.