Latest polls from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Forschungsgruppe Wahlen pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.2 percentage points.
Average ranking
Compared to other institutes' accuracy in pre-election polls, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen's average ranking is 1.8.
12x the most accurate prediction
2
6x the second best prediction
3
4x the third best prediction
4
0x on rank 4
5
1x on rank 5
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Bündnis 90/Die Grünen higher
In 40% of election polls, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen rates Bündnis 90/Die Grünen higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
ZDF Politikbarometer
Forschungsgruppen Wahlen traditionally collects polling data for the ZDF Politbarometer. The Politbarometer is a monthly program of ZDF, which surveys the current mood on political issues in Germany. In the telephone interviews, around forty questions are asked, some with, some without answer specifications. The Forschungsgruppe Wahlen also provides all forecasts and analyses for the ZDF election broadcasts.