Latest voting intention survey by Infratest dimap for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Infratest dimap, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 32%, AfD 18%, SPD 16%, Grüne 14%, BSW 5%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1307 people during the period 04.12.2024 - 04.12.2024. The survey was commissioned by ARD.
1307 participants
04.12.2024 - 04.12.2024
Infratest dimap
ARD
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
118
18.7%
Grüne
104
16.5%
BSW
37
5.9%
Union
237
37.6%
AfD
134
21.3%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Latest voting intention surveys by Infratest dimap for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates CSU lower
In 37% of election polls Infratest dimap rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Infratest dimap pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.
ARD-Deutschlandtrend
The ARD-Deutschlandtrend is a monthly political opinion poll that has been conducted since 1997 in a representative telephone survey of around 1000 to 1500 randomly selected eligible Germans. The ARD Deutschlandtrend is surveyed by the Infratest dimap institute and presented on the Tagesthemen program on German television. A historical overview of past opinion polls can also be found on the Infratest dimap website.