Current election polls and polling data from INSA

Latest voting intention survey by INSA for the Bundestag election

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by INSA, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 22%, SPD 15%, Grüne 13%, BSW 6.5%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2005 people during the period 13.01.2025 - 13.01.2025. The survey was commissioned by BILD.
2005 participants
10.01.2025 - 13.01.2025
INSA
BILD
Union
31.0
+1.0
AfD
22.0
±0.0
SPD
15.0
-1.0
Grüne
13.0
±0.0
BSW
6.5
+0.5
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Linke
3.5
+0.5
Others
5.0
-1.0

Seats in parliament

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
108
17.1%
Grüne
94
14.9%
BSW
46
7.3%
Union
224
35.6%
AfD
158
25.1%
CDU/CSU + AfD
60.6%
CDU/CSU + SPD
52.7%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
50.5%

Latest voting intention surveys by INSA for the federal states

Rating of parties

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 43% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates CSU lower

In 32% of election polls INSA rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 36% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AfD
4
69
28
BSW
1
55
43
CDU/CSU
20
71
10
FDP
1
80
19
Grüne
36
62
3
Linke
2
87
11
SPD
9
78
13

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

What counts as accurate?

Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).

Calculation Methodology

We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.

INSA-Consulere

INSA-Consulere, often called INSA for short, is a market and social research institute founded in 2009. It is best known for its Sunday poll, which is published every week in Bild-Zeitung, Bild am Sonntag and bild.de. INSA collects polls on federal elections, state elections and local elections.