Latest voting intention survey by INSA for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by INSA, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 21%, SPD 16%, Grüne 12%, BSW 7%, Die Linke 4% and FDP 4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1203 people during the period 24.01.2025 - 24.01.2025. The survey was commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
1203 participants
20.01.2025 - 24.01.2025
INSA
BILD am Sonntag
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
117
18.6%
Grüne
88
14%
BSW
51
8.1%
Union
220
34.9%
AfD
154
24.4%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Latest voting intention surveys by INSA for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates BSW higher
In 44% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates CSU lower
In 32% of election polls INSA rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Grüne lower
In 35% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.5
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in INSA pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.
INSA-Consulere
INSA-Consulere, often called INSA for short, is a market and social research institute founded in 2009. It is best known for its Sunday poll, which is published every week in Bild-Zeitung, Bild am Sonntag and bild.de. INSA collects polls on federal elections, state elections and local elections.