Latest voting intention survey by INSA for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by INSA, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 20%, SPD 17%, Grüne 11%, BSW 8%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1203 people during the period 13.12.2024 - 13.12.2024. The survey was commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
1203 participants
13.12.2024 - 13.12.2024
INSA
BILD am Sonntag
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
116
18.4%
Grüne
75
11.9%
BSW
55
8.7%
FDP
34
5.4%
Union
213
33.8%
AfD
137
21.7%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Latest voting intention surveys by INSA for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates BSW higher
In 40% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates CSU lower
In 32% of election polls INSA rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Grüne lower
In 36% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in INSA pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.
INSA-Consulere
INSA-Consulere, often called INSA for short, is a market and social research institute founded in 2009. It is best known for its Sunday poll, which is published every week in Bild-Zeitung, Bild am Sonntag and bild.de. INSA collects polls on federal elections, state elections and local elections.