Current election polls and polling data from INSA

Latest voting intention survey by INSA for the Bundestag election

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by INSA, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 20%, SPD 17%, Grüne 11%, BSW 8%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1203 people during the period 13.12.2024 - 13.12.2024. The survey was commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
1203 participants
13.12.2024 - 13.12.2024
INSA
BILD am Sonntag
Union
31.0
-0.5
AfD
20.0
+0.5
SPD
17.0
±0.0
Grüne
11.0
-0.5
BSW
8.0
±0.0
FDP
5.0
+0.5
Linke
3.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
±0.0

Seats in parliament

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
116
18.4%
Grüne
75
11.9%
BSW
55
8.7%
FDP
34
5.4%
Union
213
33.8%
AfD
137
21.7%
CDU/CSU + AfD
55.6%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
54.4%
CDU/CSU + SPD
52.2%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
51.1%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
45.7%

Latest voting intention surveys by INSA for the federal states

Rating of parties

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 40% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates CSU lower

In 32% of election polls INSA rates CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 36% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AfD
4
69
27
BSW
2
58
40
CDU/CSU
20
70
10
FDP
1
81
18
Grüne
36
62
3
Linke
2
87
11
SPD
10
77
13

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

What counts as accurate?

Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).

Calculation Methodology

We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.

INSA-Consulere

INSA-Consulere, often called INSA for short, is a market and social research institute founded in 2009. It is best known for its Sunday poll, which is published every week in Bild-Zeitung, Bild am Sonntag and bild.de. INSA collects polls on federal elections, state elections and local elections.