Current election polls and polling data from Institut Wahlkreisprognose

Latest voting intention survey by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for the Bundestag election

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 26%, AfD 24.5%, SPD 16.5%, Grüne 12%, Die Linke 10.5%, FDP 4% and BSW 3.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 30.04.2025 - 30.04.2025.
1000 participants
27.04.2025 - 30.04.2025
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Union
26.0
-3.5
AfD
24.5
+4.0
SPD
16.5
+2.0
Grüne
12.0
±0.0
Linke
10.5
+2.5
FDP
4.0
-0.5
BSW
3.5
-1.0
Others
3.0
-3.5

Seats in parliament

630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
73
11.6%
SPD
116
18.4%
Grüne
84
13.3%
Union
184
29.2%
AfD
173
27.5%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne
61.0%
CDU/CSU + AfD
56.7%
CDU/CSU + SPD
47.6%

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieves a score of 87/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Latest voting intention surveys by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for the federal states

Hamburg
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
33.5
18
16.5
14
9
2.5
2.5
Brandenburg
· 7 months ago
7 months ago
Open Details
28
27
13.5
12.5
4.5
3.5
0.5
6.5
Brandenburg
· 8 months ago
8 months ago
Open Details
30
20.5
15
14.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
1
5.5
Thuringia
· 8 months ago
8 months ago
Open Details
31
22.5
17.5
14
5
2.5
7.5

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AfD
9
76
15
BSW
7
72
21
CDU/CSU
29
57
14
FDP
4
90
6
Grüne
18
69
13
Linke
13
85
3
SPD
11
63
26

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.

constituency forecasts

The institute Wahlkreisprognose is a young opinion research institute that regularly collects poll data on federal elections as well as state elections. In addition, the institute calculates data down to the constituency level. Among experts, however, the reliability of such fine surveys is disputed.