Current election polls and polling data from Institut Wahlkreisprognose

Latest voting intention survey by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for the Bundestag election

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 20.5%, SPD 18.5%, Grüne 11.5%, BSW 3.5%, Die Linke 3%, FDP 3% and Freie Wähler 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2000 people during the period 05.12.2024 - 05.12.2024.
2000 participants
05.12.2024 - 05.12.2024
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Union
31.0
-3.0
AfD
20.5
+2.0
SPD
18.5
+3.5
Grüne
11.5
+0.5
BSW
3.5
-1.5
Linke
3.0
+0.5
FDP
3.0
-1.0
FW
3.0
+0.5
Others
6.0
-1.5

Seats in parliament

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
143
22.7%
Grüne
89
14.1%
Union
239
37.9%
AfD
159
25.2%
CDU/CSU + AfD
63.2%
CDU/CSU + SPD
60.6%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
52.1%

Latest voting intention surveys by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for the federal states

Brandenburg
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
28
27
13.5
12.5
4.5
3.5
0.5
6.5
Brandenburg
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details
30
20.5
15
14.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
1
5.5
Thuringia
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details
31
22.5
17.5
14
5
2.5
7.5
Saxony
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details
Saxony
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details
34.5
30
14
5
4.5
4.5
1
6.5

Rating of parties

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 32% of election polls, Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates CDU/CSU lower

In 77% of election polls Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates CDU/CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates CSU higher

In 35% of election polls, Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates CSU higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AfD
9
77
14
BSW
5
63
32
CDU/CSU
77
15
8
FDP
4
89
7
FW
5
89
5
Grüne
18
70
12
Linke
12
86
3
SPD
10
63
26

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Institut Wahlkreisprognose pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.

Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results

What counts as accurate?

Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).

Calculation Methodology

We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.

constituency forecasts

The institute Wahlkreisprognose is a young opinion research institute that regularly collects poll data on federal elections as well as state elections. In addition, the institute calculates data down to the constituency level. Among experts, however, the reliability of such fine surveys is disputed.