Latest voting intention survey by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 26%, AfD 24.5%, SPD 16.5%, Grüne 12%, Die Linke 10.5%, FDP 4% and BSW 3.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 30.04.2025 - 30.04.2025.
1000 participants
27.04.2025 - 30.04.2025
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
73
11.6%
SPD
116
18.4%
Grüne
84
13.3%
Union
184
29.2%
AfD
173
27.5%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
87
PolitPro Score
Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieves a score of 87/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Latest voting intention surveys by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for the federal states
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.1
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Institut Wahlkreisprognose pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.62
|
Parliamentary Election in Hamburg 2025 | 3/4 |
|
0.71
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2025 | 4/11 |
|
1.43
|
Parliamentary Election in Brandenburg 2024 | 2/4 |
|
1.32
|
Parliamentary Election in Thüringen 2024 | 3/5 |
|
1.07
|
Parliamentary Election in Sachsen 2024 | 4/5 |
|
0.57
|
Parliamentary Election in Bayern 2023 | 1/6 |
|
1.03
|
Parliamentary Election in Hessen 2023 | 1/5 |
|
0.62
|
Parliamentary Election in Bremen 2023 | 1/4 |
|
0.95
|
Parliamentary Election in Berlin 2023 | 2/6 |
|
0.87
|
Parliamentary Election in Niedersachsen 2022 | 2/6 |
|
1.38
|
Parliamentary Election in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2022 | 1/7 |
|
1.6
|
Parliamentary Election in Schleswig-Holstein 2022 | 1/4 |
|
1.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Saarland 2022 | 2/4 |
|
0.98
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 6/12 |
|
2.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Berlin 2021 | 4/4 |
|
0.42
|
Parliamentary Election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021 | 1/4 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
constituency forecasts
The institute Wahlkreisprognose is a young opinion research institute that regularly collects poll data on federal elections as well as state elections. In addition, the institute calculates data down to the constituency level. Among experts, however, the reliability of such fine surveys is disputed.