Latest polls from Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Institut Wahlkreisprognose pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.
Average ranking
Compared to other institutes' accuracy in pre-election polls, Institut Wahlkreisprognose's average ranking is 2.0.
3x the most accurate prediction
2
3x the second best prediction
3
0x the third best prediction
4
0x on rank 4
5
1x on rank 5
Rating of parties
Institute often rates CDU/CSU lower
In 75% of election polls Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates CDU/CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates CSU higher
In 40% of election polls, Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates CSU higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
constituency forecasts
The institute Wahlkreisprognose is a young opinion research institute that regularly collects poll data on federal elections as well as state elections. In addition, the institute calculates data down to the constituency level. Among experts, however, the reliability of such fine surveys is disputed.