Latest voting intention survey by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 20.5%, SPD 18.5%, Grüne 11.5%, BSW 3.5%, Die Linke 3%, FDP 3% and Freie Wähler 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2000 people during the period 05.12.2024 - 05.12.2024.
2000 participants
05.12.2024 - 05.12.2024
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
143
22.7%
Grüne
89
14.1%
Union
239
37.9%
AfD
159
25.2%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Latest voting intention surveys by Institut Wahlkreisprognose for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates BSW higher
In 32% of election polls, Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates CDU/CSU lower
In 77% of election polls Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates CDU/CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates CSU higher
In 35% of election polls, Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates CSU higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Institut Wahlkreisprognose pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.43
|
Parliamentary Election in Brandenburg 2024 | 2/4 |
|
1.32
|
Parliamentary Election in Thüringen 2024 | 3/5 |
|
1.07
|
Parliamentary Election in Sachsen 2024 | 4/5 |
|
0.57
|
Parliamentary Election in Bayern 2023 | 1/5 |
|
1.03
|
Parliamentary Election in Hessen 2023 | 1/5 |
|
0.62
|
Parliamentary Election in Bremen 2023 | 1/4 |
|
0.95
|
Parliamentary Election in Berlin 2023 | 2/6 |
|
0.87
|
Parliamentary Election in Niedersachsen 2022 | 2/5 |
|
1.38
|
Parliamentary Election in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2022 | 1/6 |
|
1.6
|
Parliamentary Election in Schleswig-Holstein 2022 | 1/4 |
|
1.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Saarland 2022 | 2/4 |
|
0.98
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 6/12 |
|
2.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Berlin 2021 | 4/4 |
|
0.42
|
Parliamentary Election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021 | 1/4 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.
constituency forecasts
The institute Wahlkreisprognose is a young opinion research institute that regularly collects poll data on federal elections as well as state elections. In addition, the institute calculates data down to the constituency level. Among experts, however, the reliability of such fine surveys is disputed.