Latest voting intention survey by Kantar for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Kantar, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 29%, AfD 19%, SPD 17%, Grüne 16%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1806 people during the period 28.11.2023 - 28.11.2023. The survey was commissioned by FOCUS.
1806 participants
20.11.2023 - 28.11.2023
Kantar
FOCUS
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
125
19.8%
Grüne
117
18.6%
FDP
36
5.7%
Union
213
33.8%
AfD
139
22.1%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Kantar pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.4 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.38
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 11/12 |
|
1.43
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 4/10 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.