Latest voting intention survey by Trend Research Hamburg for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Trend Research Hamburg, the parties received the following results: SPD 27%, CDU/CSU 22%, Grüne 15%, AfD 11%, FDP 11% and Die Linke 7%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1097 people during the period 16.09.2021 - 16.09.2021. The survey was commissioned by Radio Hamburg.
1097 participants
13.09.2021 - 16.09.2021
Trend Research Hamburg
Radio Hamburg
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
SPD
27.0
+1.0
Union
22.0
+2.0
Grüne
15.0
±0.0
AfD
11.0
-1.0
FDP
11.0
-2.0
Linke
7.0
±0.0
Others
7.0
±0.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
47
7.5%
SPD
183
29%
Grüne
102
16.2%
FDP
74
11.7%
Union
150
23.8%
AfD
74
11.7%
SPD + Grüne + FDP
SPD + CDU/CSU
SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
SPD + Grüne
71
PolitPro Score
Trend Research Hamburg achieves a score of 71/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Latest voting intention surveys by Trend Research Hamburg for the federal states
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.5
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Trend Research Hamburg pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 9/12 |
|
1.77
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 8/10 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.