Latest voting intention survey by Verian for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Verian, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 20%, SPD 15%, Grüne 14%, BSW 5%, Die Linke 4% and FDP 4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1461 people during the period 28.01.2025 - 28.01.2025. The survey was commissioned by FOCUS.
1461 participants
22.01.2025 - 28.01.2025
Verian
FOCUS
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
113
17.9%
Grüne
105
16.7%
BSW
37
5.9%
Union
225
35.7%
AfD
150
23.8%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
81
PolitPro Score
Verian achieves a score of 81/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.4
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Verian pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.4 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
Deviation | Election | Rank |
---|---|---|
1.38
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 11/12 |
1.43
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 4/10 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.