Latest voting intention survey by Verian for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Verian, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 26%, AfD 23%, SPD 15%, Grüne 12%, Die Linke 11%, BSW 4% and FDP 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1468 people during the period 20.05.2025 - 20.05.2025. The survey was commissioned by FOCUS.
1468 participants
14.05.2025 - 20.05.2025
Verian
FOCUS
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
79
12.5%
SPD
108
17.1%
Grüne
87
13.8%
Union
189
30%
AfD
167
26.5%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
82
PolitPro Score
Verian achieves a score of 82/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.4
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Verian pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.4 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.38
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 11/12 |
|
1.43
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 4/10 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.