Latest voting intention survey by YouGov for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by YouGov, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 29%, AfD 21%, SPD 16%, Grüne 14%, BSW 6%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2246 people during the period 06.01.2025 - 06.01.2025.
2246 participants
03.01.2025 - 06.01.2025
YouGov
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
111
17.6%
Grüne
97
15.4%
BSW
41
6.5%
FDP
34
5.4%
Union
201
31.9%
AfD
146
23.2%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne
CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Latest voting intention surveys by YouGov for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates AfD higher
In 40% of election polls, YouGov rates AfD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates BSW higher
In 33% of election polls, YouGov rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Die Linke higher
In 33% of election polls, YouGov rates Die Linke higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Freie Wähler lower
In 64% of election polls YouGov rates Freie Wähler lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in YouGov pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.8
|
Parliamentary Election in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2022 | 6/6 |
|
1.48
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 12/12 |
|
2.1
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 10/10 |
|
2.02
|
Parliamentary Election in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2017 | 5/5 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.