Which polling institute is the most accurate?
| Institute | Accuracy | Polls | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
1.1
|
14 | |
|
2
|
1.1
|
5 | |
|
3
|
1.1
|
2 | |
|
4
|
1.2
|
29 | |
|
5
|
1.2
|
1 | |
|
6
|
1.4
|
29 | |
|
7
|
1.4
|
2 | |
|
8
|
1.4
|
2 | |
|
9
|
1.5
|
29 | |
|
10
|
1.5
|
2 | |
|
11
|
1.7
|
16 | |
|
12
|
2.1
|
4 | |
|
13
|
2.9
|
1 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.