Germany Election Poll: Results from INSA on November 13, 2023

According to INSA data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the German Bundestag: CDU/CSU with 221 representatives, AfD with 156 representatives, SPD with 120 representatives, Grüne with 97 representatives and FDP with 36 representatives.

Germany's Bundestag elections operate under a system of personalized proportional representation. Voters cast two ballots: the first determines a direct mandate in their constituency, while the second is crucial for a party's overall strength in parliament. Following the 2023 electoral reform, the Bundestag's size is capped at 630 members. A key feature is that direct mandates are now only allocated if they align with the party's second vote result. This change eliminates overhang and compensatory mandates, ensuring a transparent allocation of seats.

To enter the Bundestag, parties in Germany must clear a five-percent threshold. They need at least 5% of the valid second votes nationwide to qualify for seat allocation. A crucial exception is the basic mandate clause: a party securing at least three direct mandates gains entry to the Bundestag, reflecting its second vote share, even if it falls short of the 5% threshold. This rule ensures parliamentary representation for regionally strong parties and was largely affirmed by the Federal Constitutional Court in 2024.

German government formation typically hinges on forging stable coalition majorities, as no single party usually secures an absolute majority of seats. Post-election, parties engage in exploratory talks and formal coalition negotiations, culminating in a coalition agreement. A defining feature of the current political landscape is the 'Brandmauer' (firewall) principle: established centrist parties categorically rule out coalitions with far-right forces, notably the AfD. This often necessitates three-party alliances, like 'Jamaica' or 'Kenya' coalitions, to build a viable governing majority outside the political extremes.