Bavaria: Poll by GMS from 05.02.2024

Bavaria: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
CSU
42.0
+1.0
FW
15.0
-1.0
AfD
13.0
-1.0
Grüne
12.0
-1.0
SPD
6.0
±0.0
BSW
3.0
+3.0
FDP
2.0
-1.0
BP
1.0
±0.0
Linke
1.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+5.0
FW
-0.8
AfD
-1.6
Grüne
-2.4
SPD
-2.4
BSW
New
FDP
-1.0
BP
+0.1
Linke
-0.5
GMS – 1018 respondents – 31.01.2024-05.02.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from GMS shows the following results: CSU 42%, Freie Wähler 15%, AfD 13%, Grüne 12%, SPD 6%, BSW 3%, FDP 2%, Bayernpartei 1% and Die Linke 1%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.0 growth since the last election. Grüne, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 65.5% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by GMS. For this purpose, 1018 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (31.01.2024 - 05.02.2024).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
12
6.7%
Grüne
24
13.3%
CSU
87
48.3%
FW
31
17.2%
AfD
26
14.4%
CSU + Freie Wähler
65.6%
CSU + AfD
62.8%
CSU + Grüne
61.7%
CSU + SPD
55.0%
CSU
48.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by GMS. The survey took place between 31.01.2024 and 05.02.2024 among 1018 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 42%, Freie Wähler 15%, AfD 13%, Grüne 12%, SPD 6%, BSW 3%, FDP 2%, Bayernpartei 1% and Die Linke 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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