Germany: Poll by Allensbach from 12.01.2024

Polling data

CDU
30.0
+1.0
SPD
29.0
-3.0
AfD
21.0
+7.0
Grüne
11.0
-2.0
FDP
4.0
-1.0
Linke
2.0
-1.0
Others
3.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU
New
SPD
+3.3
AfD
+10.7
Grüne
-3.8
FDP
-7.5
Linke
-2.9
Allensbach – 1070 respondents – 19.12.2023-12.01.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 29.

Institute often rates AfD lower

In 32% of election polls Allensbach rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 43% of election polls, Allensbach rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Allensbach shows the following results: CDU 30%, SPD 29%, AfD 21%, Grüne 11%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +10.7 growth since the last election. CDU, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 43.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Allensbach. For this purpose, 1070 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 24 days (19.12.2023 - 12.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

135
Majority requires 68 seats
SPD
43
31.9%
Grüne
16
11.9%
CDU
45
33.3%
AfD
31
23%
CDU + SPD
65.2%
CDU + AfD
56.3%
CDU + Grüne
45.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Lower Saxony was conducted by Allensbach. The survey took place between 19.12.2023 and 12.01.2024 among 1070 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU 30%, SPD 29%, AfD 21%, Grüne 11%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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