Germany: Poll by Ipsos from 04.02.2024

Germany: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
Union
30.0
±0.0
AfD
18.0
-4.0
SPD
15.0
±0.0
Grüne
13.0
±0.0
BSW
8.0
+8.0
Linke
4.0
-1.0
FDP
4.0
-2.0
FW
3.0
+3.0
Others
5.0
-4.0
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Union
+1.5
AfD
-2.8
SPD
-1.4
Grüne
+1.4
BSW
+3.1
Linke
-4.8
FDP
-0.3
FW
+1.5
Ipsos – 2000 respondents – 02.02.2024-04.02.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 30% of election polls, Ipsos rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Ipsos shows the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 18%, SPD 15%, Grüne 13%, BSW 8%, Die Linke 4%, FDP 4% and Freie Wähler 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, BSW might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.1 growth since the last election. Die Linke, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Friedrich Merz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CDU/CSU and SPD. With 53.6% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 2000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (02.02.2024 - 04.02.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
113
17.9%
Grüne
97
15.4%
BSW
60
9.5%
Union
225
35.7%
AfD
135
21.4%
CDU/CSU + AfD
57.1%
CDU/CSU + SPD
53.7%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
51.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 02.02.2024 and 04.02.2024 among 2000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 18%, SPD 15%, Grüne 13%, BSW 8%, Die Linke 4%, FDP 4% and Freie Wähler 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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