Hamburg: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 25.04.2024

Hamburg: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
SPD
32.0
+7.5
Grüne
21.5
±0.0
CDU
18.5
-2.5
AfD
8.5
-4.5
Linke
6.0
-2.5
FDP
3.5
+0.5
BSW
2.0
+2.0
Others
8.0
-0.5
Development since the last election on 02.03.2025
SPD
-1.5
Grüne
+3.0
CDU
-1.3
AfD
+1.0
Linke
-5.2
FDP
+1.2
BSW
+0.2
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 1304 respondents – 15.04.2024-25.04.2024

Next election: 2030

The next parliamentary election in Hamburg is expected to take place in 2030.

Election poll results

Hamburg - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Hamburg from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: SPD 32%, Grüne 21.5%, CDU 18.5%, AfD 8.5%, Die Linke 6%, FDP 3.5% and BSW 2%. If an election were held in Hamburg this Sunday, Grüne might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.0 growth since the last election. Die Linke, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Peter Tschentscher is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 62.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 1304 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 10 days (15.04.2024 - 25.04.2024).

Coalition possibilities

121
Majority requires 61 seats
Linke
8
6.6%
SPD
45
37.2%
Grüne
30
24.8%
CDU
26
21.5%
AfD
12
9.9%
SPD + Grüne
62.0%
SPD + CDU
58.7%
Grüne + CDU
46.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Hamburg was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 15.04.2024 and 25.04.2024 among 1304 eligible voters. After this election poll would get SPD 32%, Grüne 21.5%, CDU 18.5%, AfD 8.5%, Die Linke 6%, FDP 3.5% and BSW 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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