Bavaria: Poll by GMS from 06.05.2024

Bavaria: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
CSU
41.0
-1.0
FW
15.0
±0.0
Grüne
13.0
+1.0
AfD
11.0
-2.0
SPD
7.0
+1.0
BSW
3.0
±0.0
Linke
2.0
+1.0
FDP
2.0
±0.0
BP
1.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
CSU
+4.0
FW
-0.8
Grüne
-1.4
AfD
-3.6
SPD
-1.4
BSW
New
Linke
+0.5
FDP
-1.0
BP
+0.1
GMS – 1023 respondents – 30.04.2024-06.05.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Bavaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria from GMS shows the following results: CSU 41%, Freie Wähler 15%, Grüne 13%, AfD 11%, SPD 7%, BSW 3%, Die Linke 2%, FDP 2% and Bayernpartei 1%. If an election were held in Bavaria this Sunday, CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.0 growth since the last election. AfD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.6) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CSU and Freie Wähler. With 64.4% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by GMS. For this purpose, 1023 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (30.04.2024 - 06.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
14
7.8%
Grüne
27
15%
CSU
85
47.2%
FW
31
17.2%
AfD
23
12.8%
CSU + Freie Wähler
64.4%
CSU + Grüne
62.2%
CSU + AfD
60.0%
CSU + SPD
55.0%
CSU
47.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bavaria was conducted by GMS. The survey took place between 30.04.2024 and 06.05.2024 among 1023 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CSU 41%, Freie Wähler 15%, Grüne 13%, AfD 11%, SPD 7%, BSW 3%, Die Linke 2%, FDP 2% and Bayernpartei 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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