Germany: Poll by Ipsos from 05.05.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
28.0
-1.0
AfD
18.0
±0.0
SPD
16.0
+1.0
Grüne
13.0
±0.0
BSW
7.0
±0.0
FDP
5.0
±0.0
Linke
4.0
±0.0
FW
3.0
±0.0
Sonst.
6.0
±0.0
Ipsos – 2000 respondents – 02.05.2024-05.05.2024
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2025.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from Ipsos shows the following results: CDU/CSU 28%, AfD 18%, SPD 16%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 13%, BSW 7%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 4% and Freie Wähler 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-9.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, FDP and SPD. With 39.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 2000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (02.05.2024 - 05.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
116
Grüne
94
BSW
50
FDP
36
CDU/CSU
203
AfD
131
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + BSW
347
CDU/CSU + AfD
334
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + FDP
333
CDU/CSU + SPD
319
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
297

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 02.05.2024 and 05.05.2024 among 2000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 28%, AfD 18%, SPD 16%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 13%, BSW 7%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 4% and Freie Wähler 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.