Germany: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 19.05.2024

Germany: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
Union
31.0
+2.5
SPD
16.5
+2.5
AfD
15.0
-4.0
Grüne
13.5
+1.0
BSW
6.0
-2.5
FDP
6.0
+0.5
Linke
3.0
+1.0
Others
9.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Union
+2.5
SPD
+0.1
AfD
-5.8
Grüne
+1.9
BSW
+1.1
FDP
+1.7
Linke
-5.8
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 2500 respondents – 13.05.2024-19.05.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2029.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, SPD 16.5%, AfD 15%, Grüne 13.5%, BSW 6%, FDP 6% and Die Linke 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, CDU/CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.5 growth since the last election. AfD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 34.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 2500 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (13.05.2024 - 19.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
119
18.9%
Grüne
96
15.2%
BSW
43
6.8%
FDP
43
6.8%
Union
222
35.2%
AfD
107
17%
CDU/CSU + SPD
54.1%
CDU/CSU + AfD
52.2%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
50.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 13.05.2024 and 19.05.2024 among 2500 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 31%, SPD 16.5%, AfD 15%, Grüne 13.5%, BSW 6%, FDP 6% and Die Linke 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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