Germany: Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen from 11.07.2024

Germany: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
Union
32.0
+1.0
AfD
17.0
±0.0
SPD
14.0
±0.0
Grüne
13.0
±0.0
BSW
7.0
±0.0
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
Others
10.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Union
+3.5
AfD
-3.8
SPD
-2.4
Grüne
+1.4
BSW
+2.1
FDP
-0.3
Linke
-5.8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen – 1341 respondents – 09.07.2024-11.07.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates Grüne higher

In 38% of election polls, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen rates Grüne higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen shows the following results: CDU/CSU 32%, AfD 17%, SPD 14%, Grüne 13%, BSW 7%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, CDU/CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.5 growth since the last election. Die Linke, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 32.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. For this purpose, 1341 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (09.07.2024 - 11.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
106
16.8%
Grüne
99
15.7%
BSW
53
8.4%
Union
243
38.6%
AfD
129
20.5%
CDU/CSU + AfD
59.0%
CDU/CSU + SPD
55.4%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
54.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The survey took place between 09.07.2024 and 11.07.2024 among 1341 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 32%, AfD 17%, SPD 14%, Grüne 13%, BSW 7%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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